Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has begun a four-day visit to India aimed at restoring momentum in bilateral ties, reviving trade negotiations, and expanding cooperation in energy, technology and defence, marking a significant diplomatic recalibration after a prolonged period of tension between Ottawa and New Delhi.
Carney arrived in India as part of a broader February 27–March 7 Indo-Pacific tour that includes Australia and Japan, but his India engagement is widely seen as the most consequential leg of the trip. This is his first official visit to India since assuming office in March 2025, and it comes at a time when both governments appear willing to move beyond the sharp diplomatic strains that defined the previous phase of relations.
The visit underscores Canada’s effort to diversify its global economic partnerships and reduce excessive dependence on the United States. For India, engagement with Canada offers access to capital, advanced technologies, and critical natural resources, while also stabilizing ties with a major Western democracy that hosts a large Indian diaspora.
Trade revival and CEPA negotiations back on the table
Carney is scheduled to travel to New Delhi on March 1, where he will hold bilateral talks with Narendra Modi on March 2. The centerpiece of discussions is expected to be the formal relaunch of negotiations on the long-pending Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, commonly referred to as CEPA. Talks on the agreement were halted amid diplomatic tensions, but both sides are now signaling readiness to resume negotiations in earnest.
The renewed target is to conclude CEPA within 12 months and substantially expand bilateral trade to between $50 billion and $70 billion by 2030. At present, annual trade between the two countries stands at just over $21 billion, according to Canadian government data. A comprehensive trade agreement would likely reduce tariff barriers, facilitate services trade, and strengthen regulatory cooperation, thereby unlocking significant growth potential.
Before reaching New Delhi, Carney is meeting business leaders in Mumbai to encourage expanded Canadian investment in India. Sectors of focus include infrastructure, clean energy, artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing. More than 600 Canadian companies already operate in India, spanning finance, engineering, and technology sectors, while Indian firms have also established a visible presence in Canada.
Indian exports to Canada primarily include pharmaceuticals, gems and jewellery, and marine products. Canadian exports to India include pulses, fertilizers, wood pulp and energy products. Strengthening trade ties could diversify export baskets and create more resilient supply chains in a volatile global environment.
Canadian pension funds have played a particularly influential role in India’s economic landscape. Over the past decade, major Canadian institutional investors have committed substantial capital to Indian real estate, logistics, renewable energy and infrastructure projects. Reports indicate that total Canadian investment in India has reached nearly $100 billion, and policymakers on both sides see scope for expanding that figure further.
India’s High Commissioner to Canada, Dinesh Patnaik, has described the visit as an opportunity to reset diplomatic relations and unlock new trade possibilities. The language of reset reflects a mutual acknowledgment that economic cooperation remains too valuable to be overshadowed by political disagreements.
Energy cooperation is expected to be another dominant theme of the talks. Discussions are underway regarding a long-term uranium supply agreement valued at approximately 2.8 billion Canadian dollars over ten years. Such a deal would support India’s expanding nuclear energy program, which is central to its strategy of meeting growing power demand while reducing carbon emissions.
Beyond uranium, the two sides are exploring collaboration in liquefied natural gas, heavy crude oil, and broader clean energy initiatives. Critical minerals, essential for renewable technologies, electric vehicles and battery storage, are also on the agenda. Canada’s abundant natural resource base positions it as a strategic partner for India’s energy transition goals.
In 2024, India received $761.5 million worth of Canada’s total energy exports, while Canada imported $206 million worth of energy products from India. These figures illustrate both the existing engagement and the significant room for expansion in the energy trade relationship.
Diplomatic recalibration after tensions under Trudeau
The importance of Carney’s visit becomes clearer when viewed against the backdrop of strained relations under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Bilateral ties deteriorated sharply in 2023 after Trudeau publicly accused India of involvement in the killing of Khalistani extremist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada. India categorically rejected the allegations as baseless and accused Canada of allowing anti-India extremist elements to operate freely.
The diplomatic fallout was severe. Canada withdrew six Indian officials and alleged links between Indian government agents and acts of intimidation and violence against Canadian citizens. India dismissed the accusations as absurd. Both countries expelled diplomats, India temporarily suspended visa services for Canadian nationals, trade missions were cancelled, and CEPA negotiations were suspended.
The tensions reached their peak during Trudeau’s tenure. However, since Carney assumed office, both sides have adopted a more measured tone. Ahead of the current visit, Canadian officials appeared to soften earlier rhetoric. A senior official remarked that if Canada genuinely believed India was interfering in its democratic processes, such a high-level visit would not be taking place. This shift suggests a pragmatic recalibration rather than a continuation of confrontation.
Carney has acknowledged past political differences but emphasized that Canada intends to remain a reliable partner in India’s rapidly expanding economy. His approach appears focused on rebuilding institutional trust and restoring dialogue across economic and strategic domains.
Security and defence cooperation are also part of the renewed engagement. National Security Advisors from both countries have already conducted high-level discussions and agreed to appoint diplomatic and law-enforcement liaison officers to strengthen coordination. Potential areas of collaboration include artificial intelligence, quantum computing, academic research partnerships, education exchanges and cultural cooperation.
Immigration remains a sensitive yet significant component of bilateral ties. Canada is one of the world’s leading immigrant-receiving nations. According to the 2021 census, approximately 8.3 million people, representing about 23 percent of Canada’s population, were born abroad. India’s Ministry of External Affairs estimates that around 1.6 million people of Indian origin reside in Canada, making the diaspora a vital bridge between the two countries.
At the same time, deportation data has drawn attention. Canadian Border Services Agency figures indicate that 2,831 Indian nationals were deported in the first ten months of 2025. In 2024, Canada deported 18,785 individuals overall, with Indians constituting the second-largest group after Mexicans. Deportation proceedings are reportedly underway against 29,542 individuals, including 6,515 Indians. Canadian authorities state that deportations typically involve criminal charges or violations of refugee and immigration regulations.
These dynamics highlight the complexity of managing people-to-people ties alongside strategic and economic considerations. Ensuring that immigration channels remain transparent and fair will be essential to maintaining goodwill within the diaspora and broader public opinion.
Carney’s four-day visit thus represents more than a diplomatic formality. It signals a deliberate attempt to re-anchor India-Canada relations in economic pragmatism and strategic cooperation. Whether the discussions culminate in tangible agreements and a formal revival of CEPA will determine whether the reset translates into a durable partnership.
